Kondratiev became an early leading figure of Soviet economics and promoted the NEP's system of small private free market enterprises in the Soviet Union. Kondratiev's theory that Western capitalist economies have long term toyear cycles of boom followed by depression gained recognition inside and outside the Soviet Union. Nikolai Dimitrievich Kondratiev was born on 4 March in the Galuevskaya, a village near Vichuga , Kostroma Governorate , into a peasant family of Komi heritage. On 5 October , at the age of 25, he was appointed Deputy Minister of Supply of the last Alexander Kerensky government, which lasted for only a few days.
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Please Log in or Register. This manuscript aims to present connections between scenario building techniques and Kondratieff's long economic waves, as a way of identifying patterns in medium and long-term planning for companies' future scenarios.
This essay considers two different conceptual contributions to improve forecasting on organizations taking as a departure point Kondratieff's economic waves and Schwartz's future scenario planning. Analyzing these two theoretical contributions, we concluded that the information obtained through the path of Kondratieff's waves can delineate future scenarios as a way to anticipate challenges, opportunities, and threats for organizations' contingency planning. As a contribution for practitioners, considering these two approaches together enables greater performance for strategic planning of future scenarios that can be applied by organizations across a range of industries.
Thinking about the future is clearly not a new subject. Nowadays, looking for anticipatory trends and trying to understanding the pathways of technological changes, with a wide range of future possibilities, constitute practical and pressing challenges for managers.
This makes them a central theme for organizations and nations who care about the way they navigate forwards. According to Coates , knowledge generated by exploring the future has direct implications for the planning the present. Otherwise, activities that regard thinking about the future, will be seen as mere entertainment that brings ineffective results to organizations.
Despite many planning efforts and goodwill, organizations of all kinds are nevertheless subject to decline and may face the threat of bankruptcy. The need to study the future becomes relevant for its contribution to the strategic planning of organizations. The main point concerning planning failures is that usually only one person, or a small group of people with leading roles, drive the future success of a project, plan, or even an entire organization. Another reason to explore the future is to help people discover their own assumptions.
A technology assessment must be taken into account when considering the need for investment in technology to achieve a promising outcome. Nefiodow and Nefiodow stressed the need to consider long-term macroeconomic scenarios in conjunction with innovation and technology challenges, thus evidences the need for further development of this combination approach. We focus in the paper on long economic waves.
The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff sought to empirically demonstrate a pattern of repetition in a series of events throughout history. The coincidences of these events, evidenced empirically, seemed to Kondratieff to demonstrate the behavior of expansion and economic recession.
The study of long economic waves allows a projected extrapolation of this behavior for future periods Kondratieff, ; Grinin, et al. Analyzing the long economic waves proposed by Kondratieff can be useful for building a process for future scenarios.
The waves bring elements that have already been empirically tested, and at least partially validated over the years. However, our analysis also addresses the impact of the changes that new information and communication technologies ICTs have brought to the acceleration of knowledge diffusion process on new technologies. This is done to identify patterns in medium and long-term future planning scenarios for companies.
In the first part of the article, we introduce future studies on a theoretical level, thus emphasizing the construction of scenarios techniques. The relation between these two, a theory and a technique, is presented at the end of this paper, demonstrating how to use the Kondratieff waves view as a way to support the improved construction of future scenarios.
This approach presented in this paper can be used or applied in contrast with predictive analytics, forecasting, foresight, and prospecting analyses.
This manuscript is structured as follows. After introducing the theme and the need for greater exploration, we start reconceptualising the literature on future studies, stressing how to conceive of future building alternatives.
We then briefly explore technology assessment, forecasting, foresight, and the construction of future scenarios concepts and approaches. In the last section of paper is presented the conclusion and concludes suggestions for further studies. For decades, organizations have been trying to incorporate predictions or visions about the future into their planning processes. Such knowledge allows organizations to make decisions that enable them to exploit advantages for future opportunities, as well as anticipate threats to enable them to be overcome.
So, studying the future involves images or perceptions about this future, which can make an impact on present actions, for both individual persons and the organizations concerned. Future studies involve techniques for probing, experimenting, pushing, and engaging people. Here we raise the idea of 'multiple and uncertain futures' Figure 1 , where a projection from the past is one of several possibilities.
The term 'technological prospecting' refers to activities that focusing prospectively on technological changes, changes in functional capacity, or on the timing and significance of an innovation. Technological prospecting is related to economic and social prospecting. Economic prospecting is relevant, since decision makers must make the best use of available resources for commercializing or using a technology.
Thus, managers must know the costs of technology, human capital, and infrastructure that will be involved, as well as understanding the forces that guide the market. The prospecting model aims to identify a desirable future among viable alternatives.
This implies characterizing an articulated system of actors involving interests, alliances, and conflicts and variables tendencies and ruptures that influence the desired future, and to expand situations for this system to become compatible with it. One attempt to study the future can be found in the field of economics. Economists such as Nikolai Kondratieff tried to determine the cyclic occurrence of events in a way of predicting future economic waves.
Although Kondratieff was successful in his attempts, his empirical evidences were proven in a period where technology development was growing in a more predictive scenario. This is the reason why we need to emphasize technology assessment, forecasting and foresight. Since technological development has increased at growing rates, anticipating the consequences of its applications became a crucial theme for determining public policies related to current and future problems.
The National Science Foundation defines technology assessment as a study of policies intended to better understand the consequences for society, regarding the extension of existing technologies or the introduction of new ones, whose effects usually would not be planned or anticipated Coates, The prospective approach to forecasting is closely connected with prediction, dating back to a tradition primarily concerned with building models that define causal relationships of scientific and technological developments, and with sketching probabilistic scenarios about the future.
Nowadays, future developments are increasingly understood as being a systemic outcome of multiple factors and decisions. This means that political and social elements must be taken into account, rather than just obeying technical issues. Flexibility is gained by emphasizing the importance of combining results from various methods, also reducing the deterministic character traditionally associated with forecasting Salles-Filho et al. Some traditional forecasting tools may be appropriate under given conditions in stable economies.
However, when facing volatile periods of economic crisis and turbulent environments, as with many countries in recent decades, quantitative models of forecasting alone lose value. Another constraint arises when dealing with emerging and rapidly changing industries, such as information technology and biotechnology, since results can be seemingly unexpected.
Thanks to the advent of new information technologies, along with current renewable energies, smart grids, and cloud computing to name a few , the creation of more elaborated models based in multiple variables has helped researchers to reduce errors previously associated with foresight. The foresight approach is often confused with other future-oriented activities such as forecasting, future studies, and strategic planning.
The term should not be confused with forecasting, the latter which tends to focus its assumptions on how the future will turn out. Forecasting scholars also seek accuracy in their predictions about what the world will look like at some point in the future. Foresight contrasts directly with forecasting, as foresight is a process that aims to create shared visions of the future that will be supported through actions taken in the present.
Thus, foresight does not seek to only predict the future, but also to get involved in creating it UNIDO, Foresight thus includes both qualitative and quantitative means for monitoring clues and indicators of trends and their development.
These are best and most useful when directly linked to policy analysis and its implications. Technological foresight assumes a dynamic reference system. This emerged in the conceptual development of evolutionary economics in the early s. Combined with this way of thinking, the practice of foresight leads to interactions under consideration during a chaotic period of change.
Foresight involves an explicit recognition that technological and scientific developments depend on choices made by actors in the present. In other words, they are not determined only by some intrinsic logic, nor do they happen independently, or randomly. These developments constitute a social process that is shaped by complex interactions among research institutes, universities, companies, governments, etc.
Foresight aims to try to anticipate advancements and new positioning as a way of influencing the orientation of technological paths. In evolutionary terms, foreside focuses on moving ahead, ensuring the competitiveness and survival of research institutions and, by extension, their end users.
It should be noted that technological foresight is considered as a process and not just a set of techniques. It focuses on creating a better understanding about possible future developments and the forces that seem to shape them. Technological foresight also suggests that the future cannot be scientifically demonstrated from basic assumptions the central point is to address the chances of development and the options for action at present , and that not passive, but rather active behavior towards the future is expected for positioning.
The literature offers several methods and approaches for exploring the future. Miles and Keenan as cited in UNIDO, cite four main groups of methods for thinking about the future: subject identification, extrapolative approach, creative approach, and prioritization approach.
In this paper, we use the creative approach, focussing on the construction of future scenarios. According to Schwartz , scenarios are stories about how the world can become tomorrow, that can help us recognize and adapt to changes in our environment. The basic purpose of scenario creation is to explore 'alternative futures' that enable a better understanding of the change process Tydeman, Scenarios are tools for improving decision-making that have possible future environments as a background.
They should not be treated as predictions that are capable of influencing the future. Instead, scenarios are vehicles that help people to learn about change. Scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of what might happen to their actions in the future. The process of envisioning scenarios is often be compared to the process of writing a movie script, where the main idea is conceived, and the characters develop around a central theme. A number of questions must be considered when building scenarios: What are the driving forces?
What is uncertain? What is inevitable? Scenario building provides a wealth of insights about possibilities for the future, in a way that helps participants to radically change the way they think of the future. Participants in scenario building strive to better understand the alternative needs of likely futures, and thus are able to develop better strategies in the present UNIDO, Another relevant feature in the scenario building process is to consider the necessary learning time for new technologies.
Much of the applicability of future forecasting has been seen in the area of business management in research carried out by Schwartz , who elaborated a scenario planning methodology for corporate purposes. The scenario must be a description of a plausible future, revealing a consistent vision that leads to account for the historical context as well as the resources mobilized by the collectivity.
In the field of economics, there are two main approaches to studying economic changes and patterns that could emerge in the form of waves, effectively, mainstream and heterodox or non-orthodox. Grinin, Korotayev and Tausch divide economic cycles studies in two.
On the other hand, non-orthodoxy scholars considered long-term for studying cyclical process of years, specially paying attention to the emergence of new paths. Some economists disagree with the heterodox approach, since there was no previous economic scenario to study the industrialization period.
Kondratieff conducted research focusing on studying all kinds of business cycles in market-oriented economies. His intention was not to constitute or lay the foundations of an appropriate theory of long waves, but rather only to reveal or demonstrate its existence based on empirical evidence from world economic history.
In , Kondratieff stated it would be impossible to precisely determine the number of years in every changing point of long waves.
In economics , Kondratiev waves also called supercycles , great surges , long waves , K-waves or the long economic cycle are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth. Long wave theory is not accepted by most academic economists. Among critics of the theory, the general consensus is that it involves recognizing patterns that may not exist. The Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratiev also written Kondratieff or Kondratyev was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles alongside other works written in the same decade.
Kondratieff’s Economic Waves and Future Scenarios Planning: an approach for organizations